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Monday, December 3, 2007 - 4:00pm

Obama Holding a Slim Lead in Iowa

For Senator Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination for the Presidency, he must win in Iowa.  You will hear many commentators making this statement, but there is a specific reason why this is true.  Outside of Iowa, Barack Obama is getting destroyed by Hillary Clinton in the polls.  Historically, the winner in Iowa receives a fairly significant bump in the polls.  Obama needs that bump to topple Hillary.


Nationally, Senator Clinton is ahead by double-digits.  In the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, Hillary is leading Barack by 11%.  The good news for Obama is that he was trailing by 21% in mid-October.


In the early primary state of New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton is also comfortably ahead.  The American Research Group (ARG) puts her lead at 11% and the AP-Pew poll gives her a 19% advantage.  In South Carolina, again Senator Clinton is the frontrunner with a 24% lead according to ARG.


What works in Barack Obama's favor is that Hillary Clinton is not the second choice of many voters.  That means when lower-tier candidates drop out of the race, those votes would go predominantly to Barack Obama. 


It is expected that some candidates will remove themselves from contention after the Iowa caucus on January 3rd.  Even John Edwards could close up shop if he does not do well.  He is currently running third and has said that he needs to win to stay in.


Therefore, if Senator Obama wins in Iowa, he could receive a boost from the actual victory and from the field narrowing to less candidates.


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