Prediction Time

          POLITICAL CRITIC

            If  tyranny and oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.

 

- James Madison

Home


Liberal T-Shirts

Angry Democrat

Annoy a Conservative

Anti-War

Apathy is Dangerous

Atheist Voter

Barack Obama '08

Ben Franklin Quote

Beware of Fascism

Bill of Rights

Bleeding Heart

Blind Faith

Blue America

Blue, Red State

Bring Home Troops

Bush and Nixon

Bush and O.J.

Bush BS Exposed

Citizen of the World

Cheney Hunting

Christian Right

Cindy Sheehan

Civil Liberties

Civil Rights

Clinton 2008

Clinton and Bush

Colbert 2008

Completely Appalled

Constitution

Darfur

Democrat

Democrats are Sexy

Dissent IS Patriotic

Don't Blame Me

Draft Republicans

Dubya in Spanish

End of an Error

Evolution

Evolve

Fascist America

FEMA

Feminist

Fox News Channel

Gandhi Quote

Gas Prices

George Orwell

Gore for President

Green Party

Hate Bush

Healthcare

Hillary for President

Hippie

Hurricane George

I Am a Dissenter

If You Can Read This...

Immigrants

Impeach Bush

Impeach Cheney First

More...

Monday, November 6, 2006 - 8:15pm

Prediction Time

The Republicans are surging nationwide in the final days before the election and have closed the gap in a number of key races.  Will it be enough for them to hold onto the House or Senate?  Let's take a closer look at all of the battleground states.

  • We'll start with Rhode Island, the state in which I currently reside.  Chafee is ahead by 1% in the last Mason-Dixon poll, but Sheldon Whitehouse is ahead by 3, 14, 10, and 8% in USA Today/Gallup, Reuters/Zogby, RI College, and Rasmussen.  All of these polls are within the last three weeks.  The Mason-Dixon poll looks like the aberration, so I predict the Democrats pick this seat up. (+1)

 

  • In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is ahead in every poll.  The worst he is doing is up 6% in Mason-Dixon.  The Democrats will take this seat away from the GOP. (+2)

 

  • In Pennsylvania, Bob Casey is also ahead in every poll.  He is up by 17% in one poll and is no worse than up 8% in any.  The liberals grab this seat from the conservatives. (+3)

 

  • In Montana, Conrad Burns (R) has closed the gap on Jim Tester (D) to a virtual tie. Tester is a very strong candidate in a red state and he has been ahead all year.  However, the GOP has conducted smear phone calls against Tester in recent weeks which has helped Burns.  He is tied in the Mason-Dixon poll, but Jon Tester is still ahead by 1% in Reuters/Zogby, 2% in Rasmussen, and 9% in USA Today/Gallup.  This is one of those races you will have to wait up until 3am to determine the result, but I believe Tester will hang on for the win. (+4)

 

  • Missouri is another incredibly tight race.  Both candidates are very good.  In the latest Rasmussen poll, Jim Talent (R) is ahead by 1%.  Claire McCaskill is ahead by 1% in Mason-Dixon, 4% in USA Today/Gallup, and 9% in SurveyUSA.  All four of these polls were conducted within the last week, but the Rasmussen one is the last.  This could go either way, but I'll take the candidate who is ahead in three of the last four polls. McCaskill will win Missouri, but not by much. (+5)

 

  • Virginia is a nasty race that pits George Allen (R) against Jim Webb (D).  Both of these guys are conservative and the race is in a dead heat.  Allen was winning throughout the year, but Webb has surged ahead in the last two weeks.  Allen holds the lead in USA Today/Gallup by 3%, but that is the only poll he now leads.  In the Rasmussen poll, the candidates are tied.  James Webb holds the lead by 1% in Reuters/Zogby, 1% in Mason Dixon, 4% in CNN, and 8% in SurveyUSA.  This also could go either way, but Webb has the momentum and leads in the most polls.  I believe Webb will win. (+6)

 

  • In Tennessee, Harold Ford Jr. (D) has run a brilliant campaign, but it looks like he will come up short against his opponent.  Corker (R) now leads in every poll, with his lowest margin being up 3% and his highest up 12%.  The Republicans already hold this seat and I believe they will keep it.

 

  • New Jersey is a race against a shady Democrat, Robert Menendez, and Thomas Kean, Jr. (R).  Outside the Northeast, Kean would probably win.  However, New Jersey is about 2-1 Democrats, so Menendez has a huge, built-in advantage.  Although this race was close for a bit, Menendez is now ahead in every poll.  At the low end, he leads by 3% and by the high end, he leads by 10%.  The Dems will retain this seat.

 

  • Maryland is a state that always goes to the Democrats, but this race is much, much closer than anyone expected.  Republican Michael Steele has run a solid campaign and has closed the gap on Ben Cardin (D).  Steele had pulled even in the SurveyUSA poll, but the latest one out shows Cardin up 3%.  Ben Cardin also leads by 3% in Mason-Dixon, 5% in Rasmussen, and 5% in Reuters/Zogby.  The Democrats will hold on and keep this seat, but not by as much as they normally would.

I am going strictly by the polls here, but if they are to be believed, the Democrats will pick up six seats and take control of the Senate 51-49.  Many of the races above are toss-ups, so they could go either way depending on turnout.

 

In the House, most would agree that the Democrats will take over.  The question is by how much.  I believe this will be closer than the experts believe.  The experts are projecting a gain of about 21-26 seats, but I think it will be closer to an 18 seat pick-up.  The Dems will take over control of the House by a narrow margin.

  |


Home / Site Map

Site Meter

Political Critic - political blogs, conservatives, vlog, liberals, democrats, republicans, video blogs, political opinion.

About


Conservative T-Shirts

Anti-Hillary

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Bomb Iran

Boycott Venezuela

Capitalist Pig

Chappaquiddick

Christian Right

Christians for Israel

Conservative

Conservative Radio

Definition of Is

Fair Tax

Fidel Castro

First Iraq, then France

Flag Burning

Freedom of Speech

George Pataki '08

George S. Patton

Global Warming

GOP Elephant

Grand Old Party

Heterosexual

Hillary Pres. of France

Illegal Immigration

Infidel

I Love Beaumont

It Takes A Village

Joe Lieberman

John McCain '08

Keep Right

Legal Citizen

Liberal Foreign Policy

Liberal Worker

Love America

Mitt Romney '08

Mount Rushmore

Move to Canada

My Soldier

One Nation Under God

Pinko Free Zone

Piss on Hezbollah

Politically Incorrect

Pro-Life

Raised Republican

Real Democrats

Republican Chick

Republicans are Sexy

Ronald Reagan

Rudy Giuliani '08

Sam Brownback '08

Shut Up Hippie

Social Conservative

Stop the ACLU

Superior Firepower

Support Israel

Ted Kennedy

More...