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Wednesday, December 19, 2007 - 7:45pm

Can Ron Paul Win in Iowa?

Texas Congressman Ron Paul hauled in over $6 million this past Sunday to set the one day record for online fundraising.  The so-called second tier candidate is now expected to be the GOP frontrunner in terms of money for the fourth quarter.  With his new cash, Dr. Paul is expected to run television and radio ads in many early states.  He has also stated that he will put more people on the ground in those states to help the campaign.


 The question is whether Ron Paul can translate cash into votes.  Mike Huckabee has risen to the top of the polls after being in the single digits, but that was primarily due to the mainstream media's fascination with him.  Governor Huckabee would never have moved up to challenge Romney had the media ignored him the way they do Ron Paul.


Since the MSM ignores Dr. Paul, he is forced to get his message out by himself.  However, he does have a lot of help.  He has millions of followers throughout the nation that are doing everything possible to help the cause.


Ron Paul supporters have been able to obtain the names and addresses of every Independent voter in Iowa.  Together, they have written letters by hand to each and every one of them to express their support for the Congressman.  In addition to telling these Independents why they should vote for Ron Paul, they also explain that they are allowed to register for the GOP caucus when they arrive at their polling location.

The best test case of Ron Paul's chances comes from the Iowa straw poll.  He received 9.1%, which was good enough for fifth place.  A decent showing, but not great, right?  Well, consider that he was polling at less than 1% at the time.  He now polls at least five times higher.  Also consider that he had no money at the time to get voters to the poll like Mitt Romney and other "leading" candidates did.

Only about 110,000 Iowans are expected to vote in the GOP caucus and the votes will be split up between six different candidates.  It may only take 25,000 votes to win the Iowa caucus.  Considering that Iowa is a state of 2.9 million people, it's not hard to imagine an underdog taking the prize by getting the vote out.   Ron Paul's supporters are so dedicated, they may be able to pull this off.


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